In Gujarat assembly elections the question was hardly about whether Narendra Modi would win a third term in office, it was always about the margin. And, it was about the X factor in the elections this time: Keshubhai Patel of the Gujarat Parivartan Party.

If Modi manages an emphatic victory here —

seats in the region of 130 or beyond — the intra-party challenge to his ascendance in national politics withers away. If the tally falls behind 117 seats, which the BJP won in 2007, it won’t hurt his prospects at the national level but it would certainly leave him a bit insecure. This way, it was always a Modi vs Modi battle in Gujarat in 2007.


The Congress going to the polls with a 11 per cent vote share deficit did not stand much of a chance. It could only have hoped to increase its tally of 2007 — in the sub-60 territory — by a few more seats and wait for the GPP to cause the damage to Modi, bringing down his strike rate. The large voter turnout in a situation where the electorate has no anti-incumbency axe to grind could only have made the writing on the wall clearer for it. As the post-poll surveys of the first phase of polls indicate the party’s electoral standing has not changed a bit.

The biggest challenge for Modi, at least in the Saurashtra region, was Keshubhai, the old BJP hand-turned principal Modi baitor and a former chief minister. The leader of politically influential Leuva Patels, Keshubhai threatened to bring down the seat tally of the BJP in the Saurashtra region by at least 12 seats. However, as the post-poll survey conducted by Delhi-based conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), he has failed to cause any damage to the BJP. In fact, he might have worked to the disadvantage of the Congress.

Polls for the Saurashtra region were held in the first phase. As many as 87 seats — including 48 in Saurashtra — went to polls in that phase and as the survey suggests the BJP is likely to win anywhere between 53 and 63 seats with 45 percent vote share. The Congress is likely to have a vote share of 33 per cent and win anywhere between 19 and 27 seats. Others, including the GPP, would manage 22 percent of vote share but would end up with 3-9 seats. Keshubhai’s party would manage a vote share of 12 percent.

The survey, conducted between 13-14 December at 120 polling booths across 29 assembly seats, had a sample size of 1,805 voters. An overwhelming 41 percent of respondents felt Modi was the best choice for chief minister while eight percent felt Keshubhai was a better bet. The same number of contestants rooted for Congress’s Shankersinh Vaghela.