There is an uncanny meeting of minds between Sriprakash Jaiswal and the BJP. The BJP agrees with Jaiswal not on his first presumption that the Congress will form the government in Uttar Pradesh, but on the assertion that the Centre may impose President's Rule in the state.

The principal opposition party believes that the most likely scenario in UP is that of a 'very hung house', with the incumbent BSP and not the main challenger SP emerging as the single largest party.

The BJP will occupy the third place, followed by the Congress on the unenviable position of number four. Poll managers in the BJP are rapidly coming to the conclusion that the BSP is not losing as much ground as the Congress's spin-doctors would have us believe.

The BSP has fielded 85 Muslims, followed by the SP with 84 and the Congress, which has given tickets to 60 Muslims. Still, the BSP is expected to suffer a fall of between 70 and 80 seats from the 206 it had got in 2007 - to between 130 and 140 seats in the ongoing poll.

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati,

But the sharp drop in the BSP's number is not getting consolidated in one player. Almost all parties gain - the BJP expects to take its tally from 50 to between 75 and 90 seats. The Congress too stands to gain - from the current 22 seats to over 50 seats.

But contrary to popular perception, the main challenger to Mayawati, the SP, is not going to improve as much as the various surveys claim. The SP had sent 97 MLAs to the UP assembly in 2007. The number is now expected to rise, but not enough to ensure that it becomes the single largest party. In short, the BSP's losses are not the SP's gains.